Probability Analysis A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value. Options: Facility Demand Options Probability Actions Expected Payoffs Large Low Demand 0.4 Do Nothing ($10) Low Demand 0.4 Reduce Prices $50 High Demand 0.6 $70 Small Low Demand 0.4 $40 High Demand 0.6 Do Nothing $40 High Demand 0.6 Overtime $50 High Demand 0.6 Expand $55 Decision Tree please see attached files below Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs: Build Small: Low Demand 0.4($40)=$16 High Demand 0.6($55)=$33 Build Large: Low Demand 0.4($50)=$20 High Demand 0.6($70)=$42 Determination of Expected Value of each alternative Build Small: $16+$33=$49 Build Large: $20+$42=$62 Grading Criteria Maximum Points The diagram is accurate and labeled correctly. The diagram clearly illustrates the sequence of events and their probability of occurrences. 32 A step-by-step breakdown of the calculations for the chance of probability and respective payoff is clearly communicated. The results of the calculations are accurate. 28 A step-by-step breakdown of the calculations for expected value is clearly communicated. The results of the calculations are accurate. 20 Clear and concise statement explaining the decision and a description of elements that lead to the decision. 20 Total: 100
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A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.
Options:
Facility
Demand Options
Probability
Actions
Expected Payoffs
Large
Low Demand
0.4
Do Nothing
($10)
Low Demand
0.4
Reduce Prices
$50
High Demand
0.6
$70
Small
Low Demand
0.4
$40
High Demand
0.6
Do Nothing
$40
High Demand
0.6
Overtime
$50
High Demand
0.6
Expand
$55
Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:
Build Small:
Low Demand
0.4($40)=$16
High Demand
0.6($55)=$33
Build Large:
Low Demand
0.4($50)=$20
High Demand
0.6($70)=$42
Determination of Expected Value of each alternative Build Small: $16+$33=$49 Build Large: $20+$42=$62
Click here for the Statistical Terms review sheet.
Submit your conclusion in a Word document to the M4: Assignment 2 Dropbox byWednesday, November 18, 2015.
Absolutely spot on. I have had the best experience with Elite Academic Research and all my work have scored highly. Thank you for your professionalism and using expert writers with vast and outstanding knowledge in their fields. I highly recommend any day and time.
Stuart L
Thanks for keeping me sane for getting everything out of the way, I’ve been stuck working more than full time and balancing the rest but I’m glad you’ve been ensuring my school work is taken care of. I'll recommend Elite Academic Research to anyone who seeks quality academic help, thank you so much!
Mindi D
Brilliant writers and awesome support team. You can tell by the depth of research and the quality of work delivered that the writers care deeply about delivering that perfect grade.
Samuel Y
I really appreciate the work all your amazing writers do to ensure that my papers are always delivered on time and always of the highest quality. I was at a crossroads last semester and I almost dropped out of school because of the many issues that were bombarding but I am glad a friend referred me to you guys. You came up big for me and continue to do so. I just wish I knew about your services earlier.
Cindy L
You can't fault the paper quality and speed of delivery. I have been using these guys for the past 3 years and I not even once have they ever failed me. They deliver properly researched papers way ahead of time. Each time I think I have had the best their professional writers surprise me with even better quality work. Elite Academic Research is a true Gem among essay writing companies.
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