HAZARD RISK / ASSESSMENT (CHAP. 2 IN HADDOW; FEMA, HTTP://WWW.TRAINING.FEMA.GOV/EMIWEB/EDU/HRAM.ASP ) HAZARD • “Source of danger that may or may not lead to an emergency or disaster.” • Risk (likelihood) accompanies a hazard leading to disaster event and its consequences • Emergency event = realization of hazard risk requiring emergency response • Disaster: when event requirements exceed response capabilities HAZARD IDENTIFICATION Foundation of all emergency management activities Hazards react with human or built environments Opportunity to assess probability and risk factors NATURAL • Floods (most common / widespread) Elevation / Time • Earthquakes (MMI Scale) • Hurricanes (CAT) • Tornado (F) • Wildfires (surface, ground, crown) • Mass movements (landslides) • Tsunami • Volcano • Structural Fire • Dam failure • Hazardous material http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cukGVndOvaE TECHNOLOGICAL (HUMAN CAUSED) • Nuclear http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Auy2c_l_Fgc • Terror(hurting people for the purpose of creating fear for political reasons) • Weapons of Mass destruction (CBRN) • Active Shooter EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RISK AND RISK AVOIDANCE Identify hazards Assess Risk of each Analyze hazard risks relative to each other Treat hazards risk according to prioritization HAZARD-RISK MANAGEMENT: VALIDITY DEPENDENT ON DATA Description Location / spatial extent of effects HAZARD PROFILING Duration of event Seasonal / other time patterns associated with event Speed of onset Availability of warning RISK ASSESSMENT: Likelyhood Concern Consequence RISK Probability: Probability of event= total number of favorable outcomes/ total number of outcomes Risk Analysis: Matrix Session 18 11 QUANTITATIVE VS. QUALITATIVE (FEMA) • Quantitative Analysis • Qualitative • Uses mathematical/ statistical data to derive numerical descriptions of risk • Uses defined terms (words) to describe and categorize risk • More precise analysis • Easier to perform • More difficult to perform • Less precise analysis CONSEQUENCE • Deaths/Fatalities (Human) • Injuries (Human) • Damages (Cost, reported in US dollars) 12 Session 18 VULNERABILITIES 1. Economic 2. Social 3. Environmental 4. Physical Seriousness Manageability Acceptability Urgency Growth SMAUG TECHNOLOGIES MAPPING / IMAGING • GIS • Satellite • Aircraft: LIDAR, FLIR SENSING • Tsunami • Gunfire • Biological MODELING • HAZUS Session 3 16 TREAT THE RISKS (FEMA) • Identify Options • Select the Best Options • Develop Risk Treatment Plan • Implement …