Positive effects on future U.S. national security based on global trends 2030

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Description

With the increasing change in population and the technological changes that accompany globalization there is a great need to prepare for almost every sector of the government. The National Intelligence Council is not left out too because of the increased level of terrorism and other security threats in the U.S. Global trends is a major concern which should be dealt with directly and squarely before it overwhelms the institutions put in place to control it. Although there are several elements of global trends, this policy paper will only analyze three of the trends which may have very huge positive effects in future. (Carpenter & Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). NIC should be able to provide framework regarding global trajectories by thinking about probable future and their consequences because it is not possible to predict the future.

Explanation

There is likeliness that the world of 2030 will be a different world ushering a new era of democratization both at the local and international level. There will be possibility of numerous changes concerning diffusion of power, individual empowerment, demographic changes and growth of food, water and energy nexus (Field & Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012).

Looking at the demographic patterns, there is needed to check on the aging, youthfulness, migration and urbanization because they will have a considerable influence on international relations. Perhaps, by 2030 the population may have gone much higher than expected hence leading to serious constraint on resources that are already very limited. Possibly, there will be a shrinking number of youthful societies hence creating uphill battle of sustaining the living standards because of the large number of aged individuals who may not be able to work and feed the world sufficiently. In addition, there may be increased number of urbanization prompting increase in housing facilities and other amenities in the urban centers and lower food production globally (National Intelligence Council, 2012).

Food, water and energy will have their demand going high due to population increase as well as worsening state of climate. Global warming may have serious effects on these critical resources owing to serious crisis. Water levels will go down accompanied by increase in precipitation that would largely increase scarcity in the world. It is undeniable also that the energy consumption shall have gone very high (Carpenter & Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005).

There is also likeliness of increase in individual empowerment in the coming years which may have a major impact by 2030. Individual empowerment may have very significant effect on poverty reduction being that the middle class will go high due to improved education standards as well as improved healthcare. Middle class will be regarded as the most vital class in the society especially being that they are both cause and effect of other trends such as improved communication and production technologies. Individual initiative will play an important role in taking personal initiatives in solving increasing global challenges. Most people will have access to disruptive technologies by 2030 which may enable them to initiate violence or any other form of information most likely through the social media (National Intelligence Council, 2012).

Analysis

Looking at demographic patterns, there are issues that should be carefully analyzed such as aging, youthful Societies and states, migration and urbanization which may impose serious threat on the National intelligence Council. It is undeniable that the age structure is rapidly changing and will therefore have significant influence on the demographic pattern. Particularly, there would be an increase in aged and median age groups may impose health challenges. Youthful minority may have very huge effect when it comes to instability in many countries around the world. It is undeniable that demographic patterns will have significant effect on the national intelligence. Increase in population growth may lead to strife and economic instability which may prompt people to migrate to other stable countries or the citizens of a particular country return to their countries to strongly participate in economic development (National Intelligence Council, 2012).

Individual empowerment may play vital role in the global security. Most people will be empowered and enlightened by 2030 due to advancement in education and technology resulting to poverty reduction. Middle class families will really rise because many people will be in a position to make their own money or acquire better jobs due to the high level of education level. New manufacturing technologies will enhance economic growth as advancement in communication technologies will lead to quick distribution of information. Political uprising especially in North Africa widely spread because of the social media and other communication technologies and perhaps such kind of situations may be on the rise come 2030 (National Intelligence Council, 2012).

With the increase in global warming climate shall have greatly changed in 2030. Food and water will be minimal but energy sources may increase due to high consumption of energy. Climatic changes may not support food and water which is sufficient for the possible global increase in population. Use of machines and motor vehicles may be on the rise leading to serious depletion of energy sources (Field & Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012).

Recommendations

Technological advances and public policies should be adopted to counter manpower that may have decreased by 2030. Machines should be put in place to avoid worsening resource constraints (National Intelligence Council, 2012). Management of resources should be enhanced and the population should be maintained to avoid overpopulation which may further deplete resources in future. Although, individual empowerment should be encouraged disruptive technologies should be managed and serious control of information be imposed in a way that people’s rights are not interfered with.

References

Carpenter, S. R., & Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. (2005). Ecosystems and human well-being: Vol. 2. Washington, DC [u.a.: Island Press.

Field, C. B., & Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption: Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press.

National Intelligence Council. (2012). Global trends 2030: Alternative worlds : a publication of the National Intelligence Council. December 2012.