Intro Outline for Exp. 1: Framing Effects

NOTE: You cannot take sentences directly from this outline. You must write in all in your own words

Articles:

Johnson (1987)

Chien, et al. (1996)

Kahneman & Tversky (1973)

Hawkins & Hastie (1990)

Slovic & Fischhoff (1977)

YOU must find at least 5 more (you can use these in other sections of the paper as well)

Introduce and define problem: we all make decisions and choices involving risk (uncertainty). Usually we are good at it; sometimes, not so much! (1,3)

With uncertain decisions, we are essentially “predicting” the likelihood of our desired result (1, 3)

When dealing with uncertainty, 3 things affect our predictions (3)

Prior knowledge 

Specific info about the subject/object/person

“expected accuracy of prediction” (YOU MUST EXPLAIN WHAT THIS MEANS ☺ )

C. When expected accuracy is low (i.e. we are not confident in our assessment), we rely more/add more weight to prior knowledge and specific info (1, 3)

This is especially true when we are not given all the information needed (1, 3)

We then rely even more heavily on prior knowledge and heuristics

D.  New information can influence us to not rely on our own heuristics or prior experience (1)

2. One such type of influence is framing (how things are worded).

A. Define, explain, give example

B. Some research looked at whether people would chose a positively framed option over a negatively framed one, even if they were the same (1, others, your own articles?)

Demographic differences? 

Seems robust- works on everyone,  in every situation

Except: when we take into account EUT and Prospect Theory (3)

Expected Utility Theory: when making decisions, we assess probable outcomes by weighing the probabilities of each of them occurring (3)

Prospect Theory: a modified (improved?) version of the EUT (your own articles)

Focuses on decisions involving risk (gambles or prospects)

Insurance example: People like the certainty of coverage for one event better than the possibility of coverage for a bunch of events

Especially when it’s better than the probability of what you might lose

We select the option that we feel is most useful to us

Compare to the idea of “you get what you pay for” (1)

Main point: people are risk aversive (avoid risk) when one of the options is a sure gain; and risk-takers when there is a certainty of a loss. 

note that this is about the certainty and sure-gain options, compared to the possible or probable options.

Researchers began looking at other factors that would influence our decision making, and if the Framing Effect is affected by these things. (your own articles)

Demographic differences (others?)

Hmm… so researchers began wondering if the TYPE of risk would be a factor

Morality (others?)

Monetary (2)

Mortality (2)

The results show…

However, overall, research has shown that we seem to be most affected by FE when

we are personally involved in the situation. So how about level of involvement?

Your own life? (others?)

Loved one’s life? (others?)

Strangers’ lives? (2, others?)

The results show…

3.5 Hindsight Bias

What is it? How does it influence decision-making/outcome judgments?

Why does Hindsight bias occur?

Possible explanations?

The current experiment (ours): Purpose:

To understand the susceptibility of people to the framing effect by measuring differing responses based on either a positively or negatively framed prompt.

Will replicate K&T ’81 experiment, with the exception that we will only be using mortality-based scenarios. (This article was not provided for Fall 2021)

Hypothesis