You are estimating costs for installing undersea cable in the Persian Gulf (aka the Arabian Gulf).You have the following information concerning installation costs:
The material cost per kilometer for cable is $200,000.
You are installing 100 kilometers of cable.
The cost per kilometer for installation depends on the sea conditions (sea state).
Sea State
Cost/kilometer
I
$25,000
II
$100,000
What would be the estimated cost of the project if you knew with certainty that, during the time you were installing the cable, you would encounter sea state I 75% of the time and sea state II 25% of the time?
Run a Crystal Ball calculation of the total estimated cost of the project, assuming the probability of sea state 1 is normally distributed with a mean of 75% and a standard deviation of 5%.Only sea states I and II are possible.Post your result, including your cost forecast.
What is your mean expected cost?
What estimated cost provides you 90% assurance that your actual cost will be less than that amount?
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