Does a later closing time of selling liquor lead to an increase in number of accidents?

Introduction

Regulations on alcohol consumption and its availability have been in place throughout the world for many years. Alcohol consumption goes with a number of problems in terms of personal health, economic implications, and accidents among other negative implications. The effects of various regulations on alcohol availability and its consumption have been found to have some positive impact in reducing the problems associated with alcohol. Some of the regulations include the age limits for alcohol consumers and the time limits for alcohol consumption in terms of both opening and closing time. This paper concentrates on later closing time of selling alcohol and whether such closing time lead to an increase in number of accidents or has no impact as far as alcohol related accidents are concerned. The paper entails an empirical study on the relationship between later closing time of selling alcohol and increase in the number of accidents. The statistical relationship in this case is important in the sense that later closing time could have more adverse and negative economic implications than the benefits obtained from sale of liquor after a specific time extension. Regulation on alcohol availability include prohibiting sale to underage individuals, allowing monopolization, reducing physical access through the reduction of the number of outlets and limiting the hours as well as days of sale. The economic impacts from such regulations are achieved through a reduction of the number of alcohol-related problems such as accidents.

Previous Studies

A lot has previously been done on the topic through similar studies such as showing the impact of regulations on retail availability in terms of hours and days of sale on alcohol consumption and the related problems. Violence and accidents associated with late alcohol sale during late trading hours is a phenomenon evidenced in many countries around the world (Carpenter and Eisenberg, pg.127). Similar studies have been conducted in regions like Iceland as well as Mexico. The results of such studies showed increased cases of violence and drink driving accidents as a result of late drinking. Policies to curb the problem in such cases included increasing police workload in a more even way throughout the night. Such policies were found to be inactive as the cases of drunk driving, number of arrests, and hospital emergencies kept on increasing despite increase of police workload. The best policy was to ban the twenty-four hour liquor policy in the affected areas, which restored the problem almost back to normal.

Data Source and Description

This research makes use of secondary data to extract adequate information that could give a good relationship between later hour sale of liquor and the increase in the number of accidents. Secondary data is used in this paper. The data is obtained from various sources, most of them being previous studies focusing on the same area of study. The choice of secondary data was based on its attributes of being easy to find, cheap to use, and ability to cover a wide area of study.

Model Specification

The model specified for this study is based on the economic implications resulting from the late closing time of selling liquor to individuals. The later sale of liquor could have immediate economic gain to the sellers of the alcohol but the long terms effects are harmful to the economy. Accidents resulting from drink driving are depicted differently in various countries and regions. The economic impact is mainly long term in the sense that late closing time extents the possibility of taking long time drinking and becoming more irresponsible. Victims of drink driving include the families of those involved in traffic accidents caused by drink driving individuals. Case of lost lives also reduce the ability to contribute in economic projects especially when good human resources are lost in the resulting traffic accidents and other accidents related to heavy alcohol consumption. Later closing time increases the time available for people to increase their liquor intake. This consequently contributes to irresponsible behaviors such as drunk driving (Hahn, Lawrence and Kuzara, Pg.596). The possibility of late-night traffic accidents increases as well. Accidents resulting from heavy drinking could be extended to other traffic users who are not involved in any drinking activities. The model in this case is viewed from two perspectives. While later closing of the time available to sell liquor has some negative effects to the people consuming their alcohol during such time, the economic gain is positive in the short term. This is because the seller benefits financially and the government increases its revenue capacity from the sale of alcohol. However, increased accident cases are likely to occur given that alcohol deters concentration.

The model in this case would be in a way such that increase in the number of accidents depends on later closing time and other factors such as the volume of alcohol consumer. The model would be as follows:

Increase in number of accidents = Autonomous variable + later closing time + volume of alcohol consumed.

The autonomous variables involve other cases, which contribute to increased accidents holding the consumption of alcohol constant.

Research Hypotheses

The research hypotheses for this study include both the null and the alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis is stated negatively while the positive hypothesis is stated positively. They include:

Null: Later closing time of selling liquor does not lead to an increase in the number of accidents.

Alternative: Later closing time of selling liquor leads to an increase in the number of accidents.

Method

A systematic literature search was initiated using electronic sources database. The data used depicts the possibility of evidenced cases of accidents resulting from alcohol consumption, but more specifically enhanced by later closing time of selling alcohol. The main data collection method in this case is the use existing surveys such as the national population health surveys and statistical information. Such surveys include questions regarding the key problem addressed in this study. The main variables in this study are time available for alcohol consumption, time extension, volume of alcohol consumed, and the number of accidents. The independent variables in this study are taken to be the extra amount of time available for drinking and the volume of alcohol consumed. Increase in the number of accidents is the dependent variable. This is because the number of accidents is assumed to depend on the volume of alcohol consumed and the time of consuming such alcohol (Hanson).

Increase in number of accidents = Autonomous variable + later closing time + volume of alcohol consumed

This can be presented as Y = a + bX1 + cX2

Where: a = autonomous variable

X1= later closing time

X2 = volume of alcohol

b, c = coefficients of X1 and X2 respectively

Empirical Results

The data is obtained from existing researches on the effect of time extension in alcohol sale on increment in accident cases. The data obtained shows that later closing time of selling alcohol increases the time of consuming alcohol. The more an individual takes time in bar or any other alcohol consumption outlet, the more the chances of increasing alcohol intake. Increased alcohol intake on the other hand increases one’s blood alcohol concentration (Carpenter and Eisenberg, pg.126). The higher the blood alcohol concentration or content an individual has, the higher the chances of being involved in a fatal accident. Available data obtained by Hanson (2013) shows that average BAC among the fatally injured driver out of drinking is 16. The relative death risks for high BAC drinking drivers in single-vehicle crashes is about 385 that of drivers with zero blood alcohol concentration (BAC). Male drivers with high BAC have a risk of causing accidents of 707 times higher than sober drivers. People with BAC are mostly male and aged 25-35.

From the data, it can be held that later closing increases the possibility of alcohol intake which leads to increased BAC. This further increases the number of accidents at any given time. The alternative hypothesis that later time selling of liquor lead to an increase in the number of accidents is accepted while the null hypothesis is rejected.

Conclusion

Consumption of alcohol not only increases the probability of causing accidents but also leads to other social-economic problems. Later closing time of selling liquor increases chances of more people taking alcohol in any particular day as well as the chances of increasing alcohol intake by a single individual. This increased intake contributes to increase BAC, which exposes drinking driver to the risks of causing fatal accidents. The research therefore proposes that later closing time be avoided through policies that place conditions on the time available for alcohol sale and drinking.

Works Cited

Carpenter, Christopher S. and Daniel Eisenberg. “Effects of Sunday sales restrictions on overall and day-specific alcohol consumption: evidence from Canada.” Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, Vol. 70, No. 1 (2009 ): 126-128.

Hahn, Robert A, et al. “Effectiveness of Policies Restricting Hours of Alcohol Sales in Preventing Excessive Alcohol Consumption and Related Harms.” American Journal of Preventive Medicine,Vol. 39, No. 6 (2010): 590 – 604.

Hanson, David J. Alcohol Problems and Solutions: Driving. 2013. 07 Nov 2013 <http://www2.potsdam.edu/hansondj/DrinkingAndDriving.html#.UnuFbCckbk8>.