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energy carriers and the science of climate

I am often trying to make sure you understand facts and not just opinions. A typical opinion you may hear is that electric cars are expensive, or the technology is just not there yet.

Well in this week’s discussion, we are going to look at both those opinions and see if they are based upon fact.

But first some background. Early in the automotive industry days, electric cars were part of the mix. They were specifically targeted at women, as the advertisements below show.

1910 Charging Station and advertisement for the 1913 Pope Waverly Luxury Coupe.

Today, a number of automobile manufacturers are switching to electric and other alternative fuel sources.

Now we are all familiar with Tesla. But did you know that after 2019 you won’t be able to be a traditional gasoline or diesel-powered Volvo? Porsche is switching to all electric cars by 2021, and even GM has announced that they plan to build only electric cars by 2023. This includes the Corvette, which they are calling the E-Ray, harking back to the 1960’s when they were called Corvette Stingrays. And there is a company today that will convert your Corvette to all electric and it will push 800 hp. That’s 45 hp more than the top of the line stock Corvette that comes from the dealer.

And for those of you who are tried and true pick-up truck owners, Rivian will be delivering its first pick-ups (with a range of over 400 miles) in the summer of 2020. Never heard of Rivian you say? Well Ford, Cox Automotive (not to be confused with Cox Cable), and Amazon all have heard of them. Cox Automotive has invested $300 million this year, Ford has invested $500 million just a few weeks ago, and Amazon has invested $700 million and three months ago, Amazon pre-ordered 100,000 delivery vans, to be delivered during the 2020s, with final delivery in 2030. And Ford has demonstrated an all electric F-150, with plans to deliver the first ones to the market sometime in 2021. GM has also announced plans to sell an electric version of the Silverado by 2023.

Ford F-150 Electric Pickup Truck.

Below is a list, in order, of the top ten best-selling traditionally powered (gasoline) vehicles (TPV) and the top ten best-selling electric vehicles (EV) in the U.S. for 2019 (data is through last summer). The prices of these electric vehicles range from low of a Nissan Leaf which can be purchased new after-tax credits for around $22,000 to a high of the Tesla Model X which is around $79,000.

But the sticker price is not the only cost. How much do you need to pay out every week/month/year also has to be factored in.

We are all familiar with the idea of miles per gallon (MPG). That is how far we can drive on one gallon of gas. With electric cars, the baseline is how many kWh it takes to go 100 miles. In this standard, we are look for the lowest kWh to see the best mileage vehicles.

So how do you compare these apples and oranges?

1. We need to determine the cost of running a TPV for 100 miles.

2. While it is great that we know how many kWh is used in the EV, how much does that cost?

So here are two simple formulas to use

a. Cost for a specific TPV to run 100 miles = (price of gallon of gas x 100)/mpg

Example:

Gas at $2.60 per gallon (U.S. average for the week of November 11, 2019 per AAA). Ford F-150 gets 22 miles per gallon

Cost of gasoline for a Ford F-150 for 100 miles = ($2.60 x 100)/22 = $11.81

b. Cost of a specific EV to run 100 miles = price of a kWh x kWh per 100 miles

Example:

Cost of electricity is $0.11 (11 cents) per kWh. Tesla Model 3 uses 26 kWh per hundred miles.

Cost of Tesla Model 3 to run 100 miles = $0.11 x 26 = $2.34

Comparatively speaking, it costs almost 5 times as much in the cost of energy to drive the F-150 as it does the Tesla Model 3.

For this discussion:

1. I want you to compare your annual gasoline costs against what it would cost you for electricity if you were to pick an EV as your next vehicle. Once you have the cost per 100 miles for both, it should be easy to extend that to the 10,000; 15,000 or more that you drive every year. For the Ford F-150, doing 15,000 miles per year energy costs (provided gasoline prices don’t go up) will be $1,909.9. The Tesla Model 3 would be $351.

2. Then discuss why or why wouldn’t you purchase an EV. Chose an EV that you like and can realistically think about buying. (I know, poor college students usually drive ten year old hand me downs, but think about after college.)

– Some of the information you will need to gather is the MPG for your present car, truck, or SUV. How many miles do you normally drive in a year? And what you expect to pay on average for a gallon of gasoline in the coming year. U.S. EIA is predicting an average price in the U.S. of $2.90 by years end.

– Some good sources of information are AAA (Triple AAA) or the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) for the price of gasoline. Kelly’s Blue Book, Edmunds, or the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for MPG, if you don’t know your car’s MPG and it is not on the list below. And of course, your electric company’s price per kWh. (Remember, depending upon where you live, the price per kWh is going to usually be between five to twenty cents per kWh). If you don’t have a bill or you don’t pay electricity, there are many sites that will provide you with the local power company’s residential price per kWh. In the example I used above, the average residential summer time price per kWh for Dominion Power, the largest provider in Virginia. Every November they shift to winter time rates, which is $0.09 per kWh (making it cheaper in the winter). And if you want to use a different EV than is on the list, you can, but you will need to look up how many kW it uses per 100 miles.

And one last thing, in July 2008, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. was $4.18 per gallon.

Traditional Powered Vehicle

EPA Estimated

Miles per Gallon

Electric Vehicle (EV)

EPA Estimated

kWh per 100 miles

Ford F-150

22

Tesla Model 3

26

Chevrolet Silverado

20

Tesla Model S

33

Ram Pickup

19

Tesla Model X

36

Nissan Rogue

29

Chevrolet Bolt

28

Toyota RAV4

26

Nissan Leaf

30

Honda CR-V

28

Honda Clarity

30

Toyota Camry

34

BMW i3

29

Honda Civic

34

Fiat 500e

30

Toyota Corolla

31

Hyundai Ioniq

25

Chevrolet Equinox

28

KIa Soul

31

  • Note: Most people don’t realize that for everyday local driving with an EV, you don’t need to find a charging station, like you need to find a gas station. You charge your car at home.
  • Please when citing sources use only websites.

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